Today's World Cup Matches: Predictions and Value Bets

Three World Cup fixtures on the slate today. Here's where our model sees value, the line you should be watching, and the trap to avoid.

Brazil vs Croatia — 16:00 GMT

The line: Brazil 1.85 / Draw 3.40 / Croatia 4.20

The bookmakers have Brazil as comfortable favourites and the underlying numbers agree — Brazil have created 2.1 xG per match in qualifying versus Croatia's 1.4. But the price feels short for a team that historically struggles in their first knockout fixture.

Our pick: Brazil to win and Over 2.5 goals. Combined as a single bet, this gets the price into value territory. Croatia's gameplan will be to keep this open and look to counter — that approach concedes goals.

England vs Senegal — 19:00 GMT

The line: England 1.65 / Draw 3.60 / Senegal 5.50

This one looks straightforward on paper, but the market is pricing in England's pedigree more than current form. Senegal have conceded fewer than one goal per match in their last six. England's attack has looked stale against well-organised defences.

Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. At a price around 2.10, this offers strong value. England often grind out 1-0 or 2-0 results against compact African opposition, and Senegal will defend deep.

Avoid: the obvious "England to win to nil" — the price is short and Senegal carry enough threat on the counter to score against any opponent.

France vs Argentina — 22:00 GMT

The line: France 2.40 / Draw 3.20 / Argentina 2.90

The match of the day, and properly priced — both teams have legitimate claims. France's tournament pedigree against Argentina's recent form.

Our pick: Both Teams to Score, Yes. Priced around 1.55, the underlying numbers strongly support it. Both attacks have been free-scoring; both defences have been beatable. We expect a 2-2 type contest.

If you want a result bet, Argentina + Draw (double chance) at around 1.75 gives you cover on the underdog and captures the value in a tight contest.

The trap of the day

Don't be tempted to parlay all three. Three "value" picks combined still need each to land — and the probability multiplies. One value bet on each match, sized properly, is the smart play. Save the accumulator for entertainment, not edge.

See live odds and place today's bets on MSport.

Predictions update as team news arrives. Lines move - check the latest odds before placing your bet. 18+. Please bet responsibly.