Traders price Clarity Act signing at 13.5% for 2026
Polymarket's book on H.R.3633 becoming law before the end of next year is heavily weighted to "No", with $790,000 changing hands in a day.
Where the market sits
Polymarket's contract on whether the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) is signed into law in 2026 is trading at an implied 13.5% for "Yes" and 86.5% for "No". The market runs until 1 January 2027 at 05:00 UTC, so it covers the full calendar year rather than any single legislative session milestone.
Over the past 24 hours, $790,215 in notional volume has gone through the market, against $306,002 of resting liquidity. That ratio — turnover more than twice the size of the book — is the interesting part of the snapshot. A market with a lopsided price and thin liquidity usually goes quiet; this one is being actively traded on both sides at odds that leave little room for the favourite to appreciate.
What the pricing implies
At 13.5%, the "Yes" side is priced roughly as a one-in-seven outcome. That is not a market calling the bill dead: it is a market saying that a signature inside a fixed twelve-month window is the unlikely branch, which is a different claim. Legislation that clears one chamber can sit for a long time without the underlying question changing much, and a calendar-bounded contract prices the clock as much as the substance.
The "No" side at 86.5% offers about 15 cents of upside per dollar committed if it holds to resolution, which is the usual shape of these long-dated policy contracts — a heavy favourite that ties up capital for months. The volume suggests traders are more interested in moving in and out of that position than in holding it to expiry.
What to watch
With crypto market-structure legislation, the two things that move a market like this are scheduling and signature risk. Neither is visible in the price data alone. What the snapshot does establish is a baseline: as of now, the crowd puts the odds of a 2026 signing in the low teens, and it is trading enough size that the number is not an artefact of a handful of orders.
If that figure moves materially in either direction, it will be a cleaner read on the bill's legislative prospects than most of the commentary around it, because someone had to pay to move it.
