Prediction Markets
Where the crowd is pricing the future, and where it is wrong.
01Traders price a Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by end-2026 at 24.5%
A Polymarket contract on a return to the mid-$40,000s carries roughly $97,000 of liquidity and a shade under $143,000 in daily volume — thin enough that the number deserves reading with care.
02Polymarket prices Team Falcons at 18% for the CS2 Esports World Cup 2026
A binary market on the Riyadh CS2 title has turned over $171,500 in a day against $84,700 of standing liquidity, with the No side holding a clear majority of the implied odds.
03Traders put Strait of Hormuz returning to normal at 36.5%
A Polymarket contract on shipping traffic through the strait has near-matched volume and liquidity, with the "No" side holding a comfortable majority.
04Polymarket prices Ethereum at $3,000 in August at 6.3%
A thin order book is turning over six times its own depth a day on a contract the market has already largely written off.
05Polymarket has Team Vision at 57.5% to win The International 2026
A single-team outright trading above even money is unusual, and the book is turning over its whole order book almost three times a day.
06Traders put Lula's 2026 re-election at 57.5%
A Polymarket contract on Brazil's presidential race is holding a modest edge for the incumbent, with about $247,000 of standing liquidity behind it.
07Traders price a Farage 80% landslide in Clacton at 23.5%
A Polymarket contract on whether Nigel Farage clears four-fifths of the vote in a Clacton by-election has turned over nearly $475,000 in a day against a book barely a seventh that size.
08Traders price a GameStop takeover of eBay at 9.5%
A Polymarket contract running to the end of 2026 has turned over more than $300,000 in a day while still leaving the deal firmly in long-shot territory.
09Traders lean slightly toward a Fed rate hike in 2026
Polymarket's contract on whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next year sits at 53.5% Yes, a market close enough to a coin flip that the spread barely favours either side.
10Traders price Iranian regime collapse before 2027 at 6.5%
A Polymarket contract on the end of the Islamic Republic carries more standing liquidity than it does daily turnover, which tells you what kind of market it is.
11Traders price Clarity Act signing at 13.5% for 2026
Polymarket's book on H.R.3633 becoming law before the end of next year is heavily weighted to "No", with $790,000 changing hands in a day.
12Polymarket prices Manchester City at 28.5% for the 2026-27 Premier League title
A market that does not settle until May 2027 is already turning over more than $900,000 a day, with City short of a coin-flip but well clear of an even field.
13Polymarket splits almost evenly on a Fed hold in September 2026
With Yes at 48.5% and No at 51.5%, traders are giving no better than a coin flip to the Fed leaving rates alone a year out — and putting nearly half a million dollars a day behind that uncertainty.
14Kalshi opens its trade data to employer compliance monitoring
A tie-up with surveillance vendor Comply puts event contracts on the same watchlists that already cover employees' stock and crypto trading.
15Traders price an end to the Iranian blockade by August 2026 at 22.2%
A Polymarket contract on a US announcement lifting the blockade turned over $304,516 in a day while sitting well on the "No" side.
16Traders price the Israel–Iran ceasefire holding through August 9 at 87.5%
A $261,000 day of turnover on a market that does not resolve until August 2026 shows where the balance of expectation currently sits.