Traders price the Israel–Iran ceasefire holding through August 9 at 87.5%

What the market says

The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 is trading with an implied probability of 87.5% on Yes and 12.5% on No. In market terms, that is a roughly seven-to-one expectation that the ceasefire is still in place at resolution.

The market closes on 9 August 2026 at 23:59 UTC — more than a year of calendar risk between now and settlement.

Volume against liquidity

Two numbers are worth putting side by side. Turnover over the past 24 hours was $261,052, while liquidity sitting in the book is $45,486. Daily volume running at close to six times available liquidity means the contract is being traded through rather than parked in: positions are turning over quickly relative to the depth on offer.

That matters for how much weight to put on the 87.5% figure. A thin book can be moved by a single sizeable order, so the price is less a settled consensus than a running tally of whoever is most active on the day. On a market with a resolution date this far out, that tally can shift a long way without any new information arriving at all.

Why an 87.5% line is not the same as certainty

The 12.5% on No is the part of the price doing the real work. On a binary question with a 12-month horizon, that residual is where traders are pricing the cumulative chance of a breakdown at any point before the deadline — not just the chance of one on the closing day.

Long-dated geopolitical contracts also carry a cost-of-capital problem: money committed to the Yes side is locked up until August 2026 for a limited return, which tends to keep such prices below the level pure probability would imply. Some portion of the 12.5% is compensation for that wait rather than a judgement on the ceasefire itself.

For now the direction of the reading is clear enough. The market's active participants expect the ceasefire to hold, and are trading heavily around a price that leaves meaningful room for it not to.